Developing Kingdom Leaders – Tom Yeakley

Taking the Mystery out of Leadership

Archive for the tag “scenario planning”

06 Feb 2023

Changing Your Plans

When they asked him to spend more time with them, he declined. But as he left, he promised, “I will come back if it is God’s will.” Then he set sail from Ephesus. Acts 18:20-21 NIV

Paul was at the end of his three-year second missionary tour. He had added a new couple to the team in Corinth, Aquila and Priscilla, and now he sailed with them to Ephesus. Paul, as was his custom, went to the synagogue to proclaim the Messiah to the Jews in Ephesus. There seems to have been an open opportunity for Paul the share the gospel among this Jewish audience indicated by their asking Paul to “spend more time with them.” But Paul declined. Why would Paul say ‘no’ to this open door?

Note that Ephesus (main city in the province of Asia) was the target audience for Paul and team two years earlier when they were at the beginning of the second tour (see Acts 16:6ff). The Holy Spirit prevented them from entering the province at that time, and now two years later there was an opportunity. Paul left Aquila and Priscilla in Ephesus (remember, they were Jewish converts) and sailed back to Jerusalem and eventually to Antioch of Syria.

Paul’s parting comment upon leaving was, “I will come back if it is God’s will.” We know he did return to Ephesus on his third tour and remained there for over two years (see Acts 19). Ephesus was still a strategic ministry audience, yet Paul’s future was dependent upon the Lord’s plans for him. He had learned to make his plans, but know that their execution was dependent upon the Lord’s guidance.

Some might say, “Well, what’s the use in planning if we don’t know whether they will be implemented? It seems like such a waste of time and effort. Why not just ‘wing it – let the Holy Spirit guide us as we go?” The Lord is an intentional God who acts according to His purposes. Jesus acknowledged the completion of the work (plans) the Father gave Him the night before His crucifixion. So, put aside this ‘wing it’ idea thinking that somehow this is more aligned with God’s leading us.

But… and this is big…. as we act out our carefully thought-through plans, we must also listen very carefully to the Holy Spirit and be willing to change our plans as He directs. He is God and we are not! He has the right to do as He sees fit and do it at anytime and in anyway He chooses. Our job is to follow His lead not expect Him to ‘rubber stamp’ our plans.

You may think that changing your leadership plans will cause a lack of trust from those you lead, but the opposite can be true. A leader who acknowledges God’s guidance, who has the humility to change plans because God has given a new direction, actually gains trust. Who doesn’t want to be led by someone who in humility says, “I had planned on this, but God over-ruled and directed us this new way?” At the beginning of his second tour, Paul changed his plans three different times before finally understanding that God wanted he and his team to go into Macedonia (northern Greece), not western Turkey.

Listen carefully to the Spirit as you execute your plans and be willing to change them. Study and apply His Word to your ministry efforts and expect Him to use the Word and others to confirm His leading (see Acts 16:1-10).

Now listen, you who say, “Today or tomorrow we will go to this or that city, spend a year there, carry on business and make money.” Why, you do not even know what will happen tomorrow. What is your life? You are a mist that appears for a little while and then vanishes. Instead, you ought to say, “If it is the Lord’s will, we will live and do this or that.” James 4:13-15 NIV

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04 May 2020

Planning into a Turbulent Future 2

Storm clouds precede a coming change, but what exactly that storm will be when it arrives is unknown.  Scenario planning anticipates several possible future situations and helps us prepare for the coming changes. It is not a lack of faith, but it is wisdom to anticipate the coming storms.

Here’s some practical ideas on how to lead your team in scenario planning:

  1. Scenario planning requires that leaders think ahead in order to stay proactive and not reactive in their leadership.  While one can’t be too detailed in future scenario plans, one can anticipate possibilities and likely responses.  Then, as the future becomes clearer, we add more details and follow one of our most likely scenarios.
  2. A key word is “if”  – that is, if this happens, then this should be your response.  If….then… thinking and planning is scenario planning.
  3. When thinking about a future scenario, you must first determine the time horizon for your planning.  To use a weather metaphor – are you thinking about the blizzard, the winter season or the beginning of a ‘little ice age?’
  4. Start future scenario thinking by taking stock of your current reality.  Use a tool like a SWOT analysis (current strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats) to think on a macro scale for the whole.  Once you have a handle on the current reality, then begin to think and plan for possible future scenarios within your time horizon.
  5. It seems wise and prudent to think out scenarios dealing with three possible futures:  1) minor changes in the future (we go back to almost our previous normal, with a few minor adjustments – like normal start dates are pushed back a little); 2) some significant changes that impact our ability to serve as we have in the past (fall schedule is disrupted – virtual connections continue; access to our audience is difficult, funding gets difficult due to a poor economy and job losses); and 3) major changes (this is ‘little ice age’ thinking – what we thought was just for several months, now looks like it will continue for the foreseeable future).
  6. Do this scenario thinking with your leadership team because there will be differing perspectives from different people and especially if you are geographically dispersed.  Being more inclusive in this will help with ownership and build a ‘guiding coalition’ for leading change as you go forward (see Kotter’s book – Leading Change).
  7. Always remember that the future is known by the Lord and His Spirit can help you anticipate it and prepare wisely for it.  Listen to Him for guidance.  He’s vested in your ‘success’ because His name, glory and purposes are at stake.  Trust Him to lead you.

Be wise.  Be safe.  Be bold!  Trust Him who knows the future!

Posted in #1 KNOW- How a Leader Thinks, #3 DO - What a Leader Does and tagged , , , , , , , , ,
27 Apr 2020

Planning into a Turbulent Future 1

And whatever town or village you enter, find out who is worthy in it and stay there until you depart.  As you enter the house, greet it.  And if the house is worthy, let your peace come upon it, but if it is not worthy, let your peace return to you.  And if anyone will not receive you or listen to your words, shake off the dust from your feet when you leave that house or town.     Matthew 10:11-14  ESV

Jesus was preparing His disciples for a short-term mission assignment.  He gave them very specific instructions on what to take or not take with them, the audience of their mission and how they were to interact with those they were sent to.  But note that He also helps them anticipate various responses when they enter the villages – both when received positively and also when they are rejected.  He is helping them by doing some scenario planning.

When Jesus sends the two disciples to get a colt, he again helps them anticipate a possible response to those who might think they are stealing it (see Mark 11:1-7).  And it came to pass exactly as anticipated.

Now this is fascinating because Jesus knows the responses they will receive, but they don’t.  Thus, He gives them some preparation so that they are not taken by surprise and have some forethought on how to deal with differing scenarios.  Scenario planning that anticipates several possible future situations is not a lack of faith, but rather it is wisdom.

The enemy will always try to take your focus off the Lord and place it on our threatening circumstances.  While paying attention to and planning for current and possible realities, always, always keep your eyes fixed on Jesus.  Key your head up and your eyes fixed on Him.

Therefore, since we are surrounded by such a great cloud of witnesses, let us throw off everything that hinders and the sin that so easily entangles. And let us run with perseverance the race marked out for us, fixing our eyes on Jesus, the pioneer and perfecter of faith.     Hebrews 12:1-2  ESV

Next we will address how to do wise scenario planning… stay tuned!

Posted in #1 KNOW- How a Leader Thinks, #3 DO - What a Leader Does and tagged , , , , , , , , ,
04 Feb 2019

Optimistic or Delusional?

What then shall we say to these things? If God is for us, who can be against us?    Romans 8:31   ESV

Perhaps you’ve heard it said, “One with God is a majority.”  Thinking realistically, this is very true.  But, living this truth can be a very different reality.

Part of strategic leadership is thinking and planning ahead with a good understanding of risk assessment.  The inexperienced idealist would simply ignore perceived risk, plan and execute those plans hoping that it all works out well.

Proverbs 22:3 says, “The prudent sees danger and hides himself, but the simple go on and suffer for it.”  Prudence, a component of godly wisdom, assesses risk, and if judged to be too great, seeks protection from it.  The simple person sees the risk also, but ignores it and pays the price.

The question is how to evaluate risk?  All of life is a risk, for none of us knows for certain about tomorrow, next week or next year.  We don’t even know with absolute certainty our next breath!  As Kingdom leaders, what do we do to wisely assess risk and then act accordingly?

First, we acknowledge our limitations in knowing with any degree of certainty what the future holds.  We acknowledge how dependent we are on the Lord to guide us, give us insight and discernment as we plan, and wisely choose courses of action that are pleasing to Him. This self-awareness should move us to prayer and listening to His Spirit as He guides us.

Second, we seek what information we can to learn of the risks that we face.  Some will be clearly visible and some not so.  Risk is assessed in light of the potential impact on our mission.  Scenario planning can be helpful in thinking what courses of action might be available if things go poorly.  Hope for the best, but plan for the worst.

Third, make your decision by faith in trusting the Lord that He is with you and will never leave you.  He and His resources will be with you.  And should things not go as well as hoped for, you know that He has control of it all and will use it for good – for you and for His purposes in and through you.  Romans 8:28

Lastly, should things really go poorly, we must be flexible enough to change our plans.

Leading is risky business!  How’s your risk assessment?

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