Planning into a Turbulent Future 2
Storm clouds precede a coming change, but what exactly that storm will be when it arrives is unknown. Scenario planning anticipates several possible future situations and helps us prepare for the coming changes. It is not a lack of faith, but it is wisdom to anticipate the coming storms.
Here’s some practical ideas on how to lead your team in scenario planning:
- Scenario planning requires that leaders think ahead in order to stay proactive and not reactive in their leadership. While one can’t be too detailed in future scenario plans, one can anticipate possibilities and likely responses. Then, as the future becomes clearer, we add more details and follow one of our most likely scenarios.
- A key word is “if” – that is, if this happens, then this should be your response. If….then… thinking and planning is scenario planning.
- When thinking about a future scenario, you must first determine the time horizon for your planning. To use a weather metaphor – are you thinking about the blizzard, the winter season or the beginning of a ‘little ice age?’
- Start future scenario thinking by taking stock of your current reality. Use a tool like a SWOT analysis (current strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats) to think on a macro scale for the whole. Once you have a handle on the current reality, then begin to think and plan for possible future scenarios within your time horizon.
- It seems wise and prudent to think out scenarios dealing with three possible futures: 1) minor changes in the future (we go back to almost our previous normal, with a few minor adjustments – like normal start dates are pushed back a little); 2) some significant changes that impact our ability to serve as we have in the past (fall schedule is disrupted – virtual connections continue; access to our audience is difficult, funding gets difficult due to a poor economy and job losses); and 3) major changes (this is ‘little ice age’ thinking – what we thought was just for several months, now looks like it will continue for the foreseeable future).
- Do this scenario thinking with your leadership team because there will be differing perspectives from different people and especially if you are geographically dispersed. Being more inclusive in this will help with ownership and build a ‘guiding coalition’ for leading change as you go forward (see Kotter’s book – Leading Change).
- Always remember that the future is known by the Lord and His Spirit can help you anticipate it and prepare wisely for it. Listen to Him for guidance. He’s vested in your ‘success’ because His name, glory and purposes are at stake. Trust Him to lead you.
Be wise. Be safe. Be bold! Trust Him who knows the future!